Victories Rooted in Barren Ground
by Paul McGeough

The US still looks at Iraq in conventional military terms, rather than as the guerilla war it has become. Whether it was Castro and Guevara in Cuba, Masoud in the Panjshir Valley or the Chechen or Vietnam conflict, a guerilla force does not have to "win" in order to win; it only has to duck and weave, to keep dancing and to concede territory when it has to while opening new fronts when it needs to, to create utter chaos.

This battle of Falluja will be written into Arab and Muslim poetry and propaganda, just as the April siege was. And it's affecting - and infecting - Iraq's political process. The only Sunni political party in the country's appointed government is threatening to quit and Sunni lobby groups have stepped up their campaign for the 20 per cent-plus of Iraqis who are Sunnis to boycott the national polls which Washington insists must be held by the last week in January.

The American belief is that if Falluja can be pacified, elections can proceed.

But where does the road go after Falluja? George Bush has won domestic legitimacy by his re-election. But his "coalition of the willing" in Iraq is becoming less willing with as many as 14 of his partners pulling out, thinking about it or reducing their numbers; and democracy advocates are questioning the legitimacy of the proposed Iraqi elections in the face of an unseemly lobby attempt to lock in the result before a single vote is cast.

Full story here.