An 'October Surprise'? Neocons have Iran in their Sights
by William Pfaff, Intl Herald Tribune  

There has been much speculation about an October surprise this year. The American public, however, has grown cynical about terrorist scares and would need a pretty convincing one to overcome the skepticism provoked by the Bush administration's past exploitations of the terrorism risk, notably around the Democratic National Convention. What about something that increases the violence in the Middle East? It is hard to imagine that the administration wants more trouble in the region since it is far from mastering the Iraq insurrection. But one theory says that making the war bigger would make it better for U.S. forces, since what is going on now is "the wrong kind of war." The U.S. has troops and tools for "real" wars, the kinds it wins, and should move on from today's disastrous affair of suicide bombers and kids with rocket-launchers. The temperature has been rising between Washington and Iran over the latter's alleged efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Some former U.S. officials concerned with Middle Eastern policy suggest that when President George W. Bush must eventually explain what has gone wrong in Iraq, it might be convenient to blame Iran. Bush could accuse Iran of fostering the Islamic extremism responsible for U.S. frustration in Najaf and elsewhere, and of encouraging Shiite resistance to the occupation force and the new Iraq government the United States is trying to install. Blaming Iran would be a step up the escalation ladder. This scenario includes the possibility that escalation could get out of hand. Pressure has already increased for "pre-emption" of Iran's nuclear-power program.

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