Group Think
The Times They Are A-Changin'
by Ruy Teixeira

[Understanding the feelings of the myriad folks in this country is as important in my opinion as anything.] Several recent polls provide a wealth of information about how the political terrain is shifting against Bush and the GOP. Start with the latest Pew Research Center poll. According to this poll, Bush's favorability rating has dropped from 72 percent last April to 53 percent today. And, when respondents were asked to supply a one-word description of Bush, they were evenly split (36 percent/36 percent) between those who supplied negative or positive descriptions. That compares to almost a two-to-one split (52 percent/27 percent) in favor of positive descriptions last May. And the most common negative description today? "Liar," which nobody even mentioned last May. Bush's approval rating in the poll has fallen to 48 percent (down eight points since mid-January), the lowest Pew has ever recorded. His approval rating in the last month has dropped has dropped nine points among white women, 10 points among those 30 to 49 years of age, 11 points among women under age 50, 11 points among white Catholics (a critical swing group), 12 points among high school graduates, 12 points among white nonevangelical Protestants, and 16 points among those in rural areas. The Pew poll has Kerry and Bush tied in a trial heat question (47 percent/47 percent), while other current polls show Kerry ahead, but this is still quite a shift from Pew's mid-January poll, when Bush was ahead by 11 points (52 percent/41 percent) in a matchup with Kerry. Republicans haven't budged in the last month, while Democrats have consolidated behind Kerry in the trial heat question and independents have dramatically shifted away from Bush, going from 52 percent/37 percent Bush to 51 percent/41 percent Kerry, a swing of 25 points. Similarly, political moderates have gone from 49 percent/43 percent Bush to 55 percent/39 percent Kerry, a shift of 22 points. Another huge shift has been among white nonevangelical Protestants, who have gone from 57 percent/36 percent Bush to 49 percent/46 percent Kerry, a swing of 24 points. It's also interesting to note that Bush's current lead over Kerry among white men is 16 points—believe it or not, a sign of weakness. In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 24 points among this group. Big shifts among independents also can be seen in changing evaluations of the political parties. Last June, independents gave the Democratic party a 55 percent favorable evaluation and the Republican party a 54 percent favorable rating. Now 65 percent of independents rate the Democratic party favorably, compared to just 50 percent favorable for the Republicans. And it is entirely because of this shift among independents that the overall public now rates the Democrats more favorably than the Republicans (58 percent to 52 percent). It's also intriguing to note that independents rate the state of Massachusetts (76 percent favorable) more highly than the state of Texas (70 percent), possibly indicating that Kerry's geographic identification may not be quite the electoral handicap it's generally assumed to be. The latest Democracy Corps report is titled "New World: Bush in Peril." While Democracy Corps can sometimes be a bit over-optimistic about how the Democrats are faring, in this case their optimism seems justified. In their latest survey, they find some significant evidence that the tide is turning. For example, they find that the Democrats now have a five-point lead in party identification, a lead that first emerged in their polling five months ago and now seems solid. Public Opinion Watch has been arguing for awhile that this was occurring and Democracy Corps is kind enough to credit him with correctly predicting the emergence of this trend. The poll also finds that likely voters give Democrats a seven-point lead in a generic Congressional ballot and give Kerry a four-point lead over Bush. In addition, by 13 points, voters say that the country is off on the wrong track and by eight points they say that they want the country to go in a "significantly different direction" than the direction Bush is headed in. They also say that they want to go in a significantly different direction in a wide variety of specific areas: by 32 points on the federal budget; by 25 points on health care; by 22 points on prescription drugs for seniors (more evidence that the GOP has lost the debate on the prescription drugs bill); by 22 points on jobs in America; by 15 points on the economy; by 11 points on taxes (another highly significant finding); by 10 points on creating more employment opportunities; by nine points on income and wages; and by nine points on middle class living standards. (For more detail on these sentiments, see Democracy Corps' recently released report on focus groups with swing voters.) Democracy Corps also finds that independents and voters in swing areas are moving rapidly away from Bush. In their Bush-Kerry trial heat, independents favor Kerry by 11 points, voters in swing states favor him by six points, and voters in swing congressional districts back Kerry by four points. And, on the question about whether the country should go in a significantly different direction, independents favor a different direction by an impressive 23 points (60 percent to 37 percent), voters in swing districts favor a new direction by 11 points, and voters in swing states want the same by 10 points. The latest Newsweek poll has more on the increasingly chilly climate for Bush. The poll finds his approval rating at 48 percent, with 52 percent saying that they would not like to see him re-elected, compared to just 43 percent who say that they would (an all-time low in this poll for Bush). He also receives poor ratings on tax policy (45 percent approval/47 percent disapproval); the situation in Iraq (45 percent/44 percent); the economy (41 percent/52 percent); health care (37 percent/50 percent); and (a new and interesting question) job creation and foreign competition (32 percent/55 percent). Of course, many observers still dismiss this latest wave of poll results as just an artifact of all the free publicity the Democrats have been getting from the primary campaign. Once the primary campaign is over and Bush starts spending his money, they argue, things will turn around for the GOP. Maybe. But Public Opinion Watch suggests these observers pay heed to the following words of wisdom from Bob Dylan: Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won't come again And don't speak too soon For the wheel's still in spin And there's no tellin' who That it's namin'. For the loser now Will be later to win For the times they are a-changin'.

Full story here.